Yet, a closer look at the long-term trends revealed that Atlantic hurricane frequency has not significantly changed since 1878. STEADY STORMS The record-smashing 2005 hurricane season raised concerns that storms were becoming stronger and more frequent. A closer look at hurricanes past and future suggests, however, that the relationship between warming and hurricanes is less clear-cut. Because climate change raises ocean temperatures, it made sense that such storms could strike more often and with more ferocity. Tropical cyclones, such as Atlantic hurricanes, are stirred up where seawater is warmer than the overlying air. “In reality, it’s a lot more subtle than that.” “Hurricanes were the poster child of global warming,” says Christopher Landsea, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. As the last storm fizzled, damages had reached $160 billion, meteorologists had run through the alphabet of preselected storm names and many people, including Gore, were indicting global warming as a probable culprit. Floodwaters covered roughly 80 percent of New Orleans, 1,836 people died, hundreds of thousands became homeless and the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record was far from over. In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast. But below are a few of the areas where climate scientists have made significant progress since 2006.Ģ006: The warming ocean could fuel more frequent and more intense Atlantic hurricanes.Ģ016: Hurricane frequency has dropped somewhat hurricane intensities haven’t changed much - yet. The far-reaching effects of climate change - from ocean acidification to disrupted ecosystems - are too numerous to examine all at once. “We’ve learned so much in the last 10 years, but the fact that the unprecedented climate change of the last 40 years is being driven by increased CO 2 hasn’t changed.” “The physics and chemistry that we’ve known about for over 200 years is bearing out,” Thompson says. While a lot has changed, the fundamental understanding of climate change, dating back to the 19th century recognition that carbon dioxide warms the planet, has held strong, he says.
In a controversial paper in March in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, researchers argued that the effects of climate change could be even more severe and sudden than current predictions. A few of the most dire warnings need revising, says Thompson, at Ohio State University in Columbus.
Some of the bold forecasts of the 2006 movie are holding, and others are on an accelerated track. More observations, faster climate-simulating computers and an improved understanding of the planet’s inner workings now provide a clearer window on how Earth’s climate will change. In the 10 years since the movie sparked increased public discussion, climate scientists have made major advances. Last December, Gore was on hand in Paris as 195 nations committed to the most ambitious pledge yet to fight back against climate change and curb carbon emissions ( SN: 1/9/16, p. But the film did what he and other researchers had been unable to do: “It got climate change on the radar,” Thompson says. Thompson missed the premiere of the documentary because he was gearing up to return to South America’s vanishing ice. Six years after his unsuccessful presidential campaign, Al Gore reentered the national spotlight to release An Inconvenient Truth, which heavily featured Thompson’s mountaintop research.
Despite the gravity and urgency of their findings, the scientists’ warnings fell mostly on deaf ears for years. The delicate balance of Earth’s climate was upset.Īs research mounted, scientists around the world from fields as diverse as chemistry and astronomy were coming to grips with a newfound truth: Carbon dioxide spewed by fossil fuel burning and other greenhouse gases were warming the world at an alarming rate, potentially threatening the health and livelihoods of millions of people. Mammoth glaciers were disappearing at unprecedented rates and withering to the smallest sizes in millennia. Rising temperatures were melting ancient titans of ice and snow. It was 1978, and high in the rugged Andes, Thompson and fellow scientists were witnessing the first glimpses of a pending worldwide disaster.
More than 25 years before the star-studded Los Angeles premiere of An Inconvenient Truth, glaciologist Lonnie Thompson was about as far away from the red carpet as possible.